A nuclear armed Iran will feel free to attack Israel and destroy the Jewish state once and for all. I don’t know any reasonable person who doubts this. The Israelis, if they wish to continue to exist, have no alternative but to attack Iran before they have an atomic bomb.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made it quite clear that he has no love for Israel and has many times offered dark hints of what he would do if he had the bomb. Adolf Hitler also laid out his hatred and what he would do, given the chance, in his book Mein Kampf, which the world ignored. The state of Israel has no choice but to take the lunatic Ahmadinejad at his word and therefore has no choice but to hit Iran, very hard, before Iran has enough plutonium to make a bomb. Iran has embarked on a path that can only end in great loss of life through its mindless hatred of the Jewish People in general and the Jewish State in particular.
The case for war is air tight, clearly Israel is reacting to an existential threat and any and all means to prevent a nuclear attack can and should be used in an unavoidable preemptive war against Iran. The nation of Israel is so small that if the demented Ahmadinejad gets off the first shot, then Israel is up a crick without a paddle: war over, Israel is destroyed. I don’t think the question is if Israel will attack but when will Israel attack. Will the war widen, not only in the middle east, but how much of the rest of the world will it engulf? Israel has a gun to its head and has to do what it has to do but I understand that Iran could plunge the planet into a depression overnight if they were able to disrupt oil production and distribution in any significant way. It’s as clear and air tight a case that Ahmadinejad will try his best to do exactly that as it is that Israel is out of time and must attack if she wants to continue to exist.
My hope is that the war will come with George W. Bush still in office. For one thing the most militant Jihadi may hate President Bush but they also fear him tremendously. They know quite well that if they pull any crap with Bush they may well find the 3rd Infantry Division in Tehran and the 4th Infantry Division in Damascus. They don’t like to admit to such fears but if they are bound and determined to disrupt oil on Bush’s watch then Bush will attack with all the recourses of the United States. I suspect that the very presence of Bush in the White House is enough to give the militant Jihadi’s in Iran a moment of pause. That’s a good thing. If Bush is calling the shots, we in the west are likely to come thru this thing ok. If the Jihadi’s know that Obama is about to be sworn in as president, or that he is the president, at the time of the attack; the likelihood of rash moves against the world oil supply increases exponentially.
It’s unfortunate that Israel is currently facing these perilous times with the worst Prime Minister they’ve ever had in the hapless Ehud Olmert. It’s like the Israeli Jimmy Carter, the man can’t do anything right and he is a proven failure as a wartime leader. Olmert is currently up to his eyebrows in scandal from some shady dealing he supposedly did while he was mayor of Jerusalem and new elections are coming in the fall. With a little luck they may get Benjamin Netanyahu back and he can clean up the Iran mess. Given the prospect of a weak American President in Obama, they need a guy like Netanyahu who is willing to go it alone, if necessary, to take care of his country. Perhaps the worst outcome would be if Olmert ended up trying to run the war because the guy is a train wreck in military matters.
The Israeli’s are currently letting it be known that they are coming unless Iran changes its tune on acquiring nukes. There have been very pointed leaks about a huge air exercise that was recently run and all preparations necessary for an attack of this magnitude seem to be occurring, publicly, so that Iran can back off now if they wish to avoid war. Iran is typically intransigent on giving up its nuclear program and the Israeli’s will have to attack within the next six months if they want to manage the situation to best advantage. My hope is that they will attack before the American election so as to have the support of the Bush administration and the Presidential Candidates who will not wish to offend the Jewish vote. Obama may come across as a weakling but he’s also very much a pragmatist and he may well end up having to support Israel before the election in ways he would never have done after the election.
War in the Middle East seems to be a given. The timing of the war is the only point at issue and when it hits the price of oil will be the first casualty. I hope the Fifth Fleet is ready for action because they economic fate of the west may well be riding on their shoulders. Iran is into every rotten thing going on in the Middle East. They destabilize Iraq and smuggle in arms and Jihadi’s to kill our solders and destabilize their neighbor. They are the force behind Hamas and Syria and they are led by a theocratic crazy man who defiantly needs to be kicked off the world stage.
It’s a just war but its effects may well hit the United States like an avalanche. I hope the Israeli’s attack is massive, quick, and decisive because the whole world is going to be feeling the effects. Taking out Iran is a job worth doing but Israel and the West are going to need a full measure of courage because the stakes for everyone have never been higher.