Sometimes I think Iran just wants to show the world that they have a missile every bit as big as the United States. Iran test-fired nine long- and medium-range missiles during war games that aimed to show the country can retaliate against a U.S. or Israeli attack, according to Iranian Media. This was about as subtle as a battleship in a bathtub because the world can see that Teheran can indeed deliver a nuke to Tel Aviv if it should be so inclined. They could also hit our bases in Iraq if they decided to take on the “Great Satan,” (us) as well as the Little Satan (Israel).
Ahmadinejad has made it quite clear that he has the means to deliver an atomic bomb to Israel and as such has guaranteed that Israel will attack his nuclear facility before the end of the year. Israel would be foolish to wait until the Iranians have cobbled enough fissionable material to construct a bomb. Ahmadinejad has labored on creating a tapestry of ugly anti Israeli rhetoric, he’s primed Syria and Hamas for war, he can wreck havoc with our economy and daily assault the price of oil with his saber rattling, but the Persian Flaw in this thing is the fact that he can’t quite build a bomb yet.
With his long range missiles he can hit pretty much anywhere in the Middle East and even Afghanistan. He’s done everything in his power to ensure that war will come, but like Saddam Husain, he may find the war a bit more than he bargained for. The great problem with an attack on Iran is the underground complexes that house his uranium enrichment program and other elements of vital infrastructure for his bomb project may not be reachable by conventional munitions alone. In order to truly derail this project it will likely be necessary to use tactical nuclear weapons. Not only has he guaranteed that he must be attacked but that nuclear weapons will be needed to do the job.
Can you imagine CNN breaking into regular programming to announce that Israel has used nuclear weapons to attack Iran and some of the low yield tactical nukes were used in populated areas. I can well imagine the breathless reporting as Israel launches a very dangerous large scale air attack while the media will goes into a feeding frenzy as everyone and his brother condemns Israel for using weapons of mass destruction. Israel may well carry the day and win the battle but the setbacks in the propaganda war will be staggering. The mainstream American press will go into orbit and so will the European Press and pretty much the rest of the world. Even if the Israeli casualties are light, even if they shoot down most of the missiles and lose just a few planes the actual war on the world stage may well be won by Ahmadinejad.
President Ahmadinejad may use the opportunity to counter attack with everything he’s got or he may play the victim while the pictures of devastation play on every TV and computer in the west. He could try to close the shipping lanes to oil or he could give CNN and the BBC and MSNBC the free run of Iran as they record the destruction and report radiation levels to the horrified planet. Either way, the use of nukes will permanently change the equation in the Middle East and build the case in the third world that they really do need the bomb to avoid Iran’s fate. Israel will have demonstrated that doomsday weapons can and will be used unless one has doomsday weapons of their own to deter the neighborhood bullies.
I don’t think that this is going to be Armageddon by any means but I suspect it may set up an Armageddon Scenario in the future. The scars left by this attack may unleash more energy into the “peace” process but don’t be fooled. The hatred generated in the Islamic world will be staggering and they will bide their time and wait but as sure as death and taxes there will come a reckoning in the future. That’s the part that scares me. It’s amazing what one short fanatical little fellow in a member’s only jacket can accomplish if he regards the people he’s supposed to be leading as expendable. The people of Iran will pay the price for the altogether justified feelings of inferiority plaguing their President. What a price to pay for a game of whose missile is bigger.