A Brave New World in the Middle East Starts Today: Iranian Nuclear Plant to Start Up

The world dithered and now, tomorrow, Iran’s new nuclear plant will commence operations and be switched on amid a ceremony to mark the event.  I have no doubt that the American Media will be filled with fawning reviews of the Rock Star President, Barak Obama’s, performance at tonight’s address to a joint session of Congress. I doubt that the Islamic State of Iran’s celebration will escape the notice of the Prime Minister designate, Benjamin Netanyahu, in Israel.  Even Fox News calls him a “hard line” politician of the Israeli “rightwing” but he’s very intelligent, personable, and above all a steely eyed realist who will act to defend the Jewish State without hesitation.  As America took a hard political left in the last election the state of Israel took a hard right; because every politician, in every Israeli party, knows that the Iranians must attacked and their nuclear program destroyed.

Last week the United Nations estimated that Iran has enough nuclear material to construct an atomic bomb.  If the UN thinks they can build a bomb, one may well conclude that they can probably build 20 bombs!  The problem with even a single bomb is that Israel is so small that one decent sized nuclear detonation could effectively end the viability of the Jewish State.  W Nuclear Bomb for Iran is a death warrant for Israel and the Iranian Celebration tomorrow will surely herald a war with Israel this year. The fact that the Iranian program has enough material for a bomb, and the means to deliver it, will not serve as a deterrent to war: but will rather guarantee war.  Once the hapless and scandal plagued Ehud Olmert is out of office and Netanyahu is installed once again as Prime Minister the planning must begin for a very bloody air attack that may well use weapons of mass destruction to arrest Iran’s nuclear progress.

The Iranians have spread out their program to many cities and have gone to great lengths to harden certain facilities believing that a civilian population would shield key nuclear facilities from an Israeli attack.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  Its one thing for Israel to avoid bombing a village firing inaccurate rockets into Israel and it’s another for Israel to avoid taking out an existential threat because they would have to use a WMD to destroy it and because it’s located in a civilian area. 

As the United States and the World sink deeper into a global depression and as the price of oil plummets, and the banks totter, the certainty of a regional war in the Middle East this year goes ignored in the media.  Iran is a dangerous enemy and I doubt the Obama Administration would provide Israel any material or economic support for such an attack and Israel would be well advised to exclude America from its war planning.  The necessity of the war taking the American Administration by surprise is a necessary evil to maintain the advantage of surprise and the naiveté of the young, inexperienced President.  It would be far better to let events propel American Policy rather than the appeasing liberals of the American Far Left who now make up the cabinet and indeed the congress and the presidency.  What is the old adage:  It’s often easier to ask forgiveness than to ask permission?  That would be good advice for Israel right now.

Given the risks involved for Israel in such an attack it’s vital that the attack be a decisive victory that utterly smashes the Iranian nuclear program because Israel is likely to face serious international repercussions.  This is not a time for halfway measures or for timidity in asserting their national right to exist!   It’s likely that Obama and his administration will be furious but will end up supporting Israel in the end once congressional supporters and political tacticians explain the facts of life to Obama.  The fact is that Obama has enough on his plate so he would be unable and unwilling to reverse American Policy toward Israel even if he wanted to.

The effects of such a war could mean massive disruption in oil supplies that would, for all intents and purposes, destroy the faltering economies of the world.  Iran has long been thought to have about half of its missiles aimed at the oil production infrastructure of the entire Persian Gulf region.  It’s entirely possible that if Israel is forced to use a WMD to destroy an underground target that this may fuel the idea that limited nuclear wars become thinkable, rather than unthinkable, across the globe as every nation vies for nuclear capability.  No one can really predict what would happen.  It was known that Saddam Husain had explosives on his own oil wells but no one knew if he would detonate them in the event of an American attack.  He did.  The world didn’t end. Does anyone doubt that Ahmadinejad is at least as crazy as Saddam Husain?

Consider the following clips from an article on The Debka File and be sure to read the whole article at this URL:  http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5925

Iran’s first nuclear reactor starts “pilot stage” at Bushehr Wednesday

DEBKAfile Special Report

February 22, 2009, 8:57 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

The preliminary phase of Iran’s first reactor, built with Russian help at the southern town of Bushehr, will be marked by a ceremony Wednesday, Feb. 25. Our sources report that Iranian nuclear teams will first activate the 1,000-MW reactor’s sections in sequence with the help of advanced Russian computers flown in to monitor their progress. The head of Iran’s nuclear commission, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, and the head of Russia’s state Rosatom Atomic Corporation, Sergey Kiriyenko will be on hand.

Iranian and Western nuclear experts say this stage is a vital step forward to making the Bushehr reactor operational. Barring hitches, it will be ready for full operation by August 2009.

The announcement by the Iranian News Agency took Washington and Jerusalem off-balance. Moscow has continually delayed meeting the deadlines in its $1 billion contract for completing the project. It was hoped that the reactor would never be finished – at least until the US and Russian presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev met for the first time on April 2, at the G-20 summit.

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